Middle Pieces

Wow, I can't say I saw this coming. Tunisia, Egypt, Jordan, Bahrain, Algeria, Yemen, Sudan...Libya. In country after country in the Middle East, protestors are taking to the streets in attempts to force their autocratic governments to step aside. The "Jasmine Revolution" as its been called.

A little more than a week after Egyptian democracy protestors forced their leader Hosni Mubarak from power, we see dynasties and monarchies much older than Mubarak's facing turmoil not seen since their creation. Jordan's King Abdullah II has pledged to institute democratic reforms in an effort to stave off upheaval. The Islamic monarchy in Bahrain has been battling demonstrators for weeks, but today said it would release all political prisoners in a move that may signal the end of its reign. Let's put this into perspective; right now an estimated 100,000 protestors are marching through the streets of the Bahrainian city of Manama...Bahrain is a country of less than one million citizens.

Sudan's president, Omar Hassan al-Bashir, today announced he will not seek re-election to the tumultuous presidency he has held since 1989, while Yemen's president remains defiant in a nation still clearly divided. But nothing is more intriguing than what's happening in Libya, a country at odds with the United States for decades.

Colonel Muammar el-Qaddafi has been the leader of Libya since he led a military coup there in 1969, but now refugees are fleeing the country as it decends into chaos. Refugees have reported hundreds of deaths at the hands of pro-government supporters, and claim that the capitol of Tripoli looks like a war zone. When hearing of Qaddafi's recent statements, I can't help but be reminded of Iraq's former information minister, "Baghdad Bob," who proclaimed confidence in the invincible Iraqi army as the buildings literally crumbled around him.

Pre-Qaddafi era Libyan flags have been reported sprouting up at Libyan embassies around the world, and Libyan government officials have resigned in protest at the bloody crackdown. Most notably, the ambassador to the U.S. Has resigned and the Libyan ambassador to the United Nations has called on Qaddafi to step aside immediately. There have also been reports that senior Libyan military officials have asked the armed forces to support the rebellion, however, it has also been reported that military helicopters and war planes are responsible for many of the deaths. Human Rights Watch has confirmed over 200 dead, while some estimates reach as high as 500.

One of the United States' oldest foes seems to be at the end of his tenure, and it doesn't appear that a U.S. Airstrike will be held responsible...oh and Carmelo Anthony just got traded to the Knicks. As my boy Martin Lawrence put it in the movie Bad Boys II, "Shit (definitely) just got real."

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Is it too late for civility in Egypt?

It has been over two weeks since reform-minded protestors took to the streets in Egypt. In that time, the Hosni Mubarak government has made verbal and concrete concessions aimed at restoring peace and normalization to the country. Mubarak has resigned from his post as the head of the National Democratic Party, the only legal political party in Egypt, and has vowed that he nor his son will run in this year's presidential election. However, he has stopped short of immediately resigning as president and dismantling the one-party political apparatus which has dominated Egypt for over thirty years.

This immediate action is what many of the protestors are calling for; the end of the Mubarak era, a new constitution, a democratic multi-party political system...freedom, this is what they want. However, in the West we have come to expect that transitions of governmental power contain two elements; they occur within the boundaries of law and are peaceful in nature. So far law and order have been hard to come by in Egypt, but there is little reason for the impending transition to need to continue down the path of a bloody revolution versus an inevitable evolution. Do the Egyptian people really want the founding of their new democracy to begin with brutality and anarchy?

While Mubarak's repressive tactics have been the overwhelming source of the bloodshed, the protestor's demand for an immediate overthrow of the whole regime also have to factor into the blame. Essentially, if the protestors are willing to accept that the transition will, and should, take time, they may end up with a better product once their new government is formed. Time...time to create effective political parties...time to communicate each party's message to the Egyptian electorate...time to draft a new and citizen-empowering constitution.

Given Mubarak's excessive tenure as president, it is no wonder his insistence on serving out the remainder of his term has fallen on deaf ears. While a timely, orderly transition is what's needed, Mubarak lacks the legitimacy to call for it. To Egyptians he is a dictator, he is the enemy, he is the problem, so how can he be trusted to usher-in reform? He cannot.

Mubarak's best option is to immediately cede presidential power to a successor whom will serve out the remainder of his term. Utilizing the input of international organizations and opposition leaders such as Mohamed ElBaradei, this successor should then begin work on drafting a new constitution which will go into effect prior to the fall presidential elections and will be published for all Egyptians to see. The emergency powers which have justified Mubarak's one-party rule should be nullified and political parties legalized. Additionally, certain elements of Mubarak's former regime should be excluded from running in the election, including even the successor chosen to help craft the constitutional document.

The worst thing Mubarak can do is continue testing the will of his people by staying in office. The longer he stays, the more radicalized the populace is likely to become, and there can be no doubt that should chaos and anarchy prevail, the Egyptian situation will be exploited by the hardline Islamist elements of society.

By taking the tangible, irrevocable step of resigning, Mubarak will communicate to the Egyptian people that the change is in fact real. One can only hope that Egyptians take this to heart and steer their ship toward calmer waters. Let history make note, when given the choice of violence and anarchy or law and order, Egyptians choose the latter.

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